It was a typical sell the rumour buy the fact type of session once the USDA put their numbers on the table.
US corn is projected with record yields, we all knew that. Instead of falling on the confirmation it closed slightly higher.
US soybeans, record production, beans had spent the last week of so trying to ignore some impressive export data out of the US. When the USDA bean numbers hit the floor everyone one just rolled their eyes and said they are dreaming, smoke and mirrors boys and girls, smoke and mirrors…and caffeine….and maybe some hard drugs, can’t be that high. Actually for once I think the USDA are probably pretty much on the money with the US corn and bean data. The US has had what could only be described as the perfect season in many states, it is only fitting we see the crops perform as they are bred too then isn’t it.
Wheat was a follower, to close higher was a pretty good magic trick in itself. USDA world wheat production is now pegged at a massive 743.44mt, the real magic trick was how the USDA managed to shed almost 1mt off the ending stocks though, good luck pulling that off. USA +1.6mt, Australia +1mt, Canada +1mt, Russia +7mt, Kazakhstan +2mt, Ukraine +2mt, the only light was the 9mt reduction in EU output. The only reason wheat managed a higher close appears to be some short squeeze pressure on the nearby contracts as they approach September, the delivery month. The trade did generally have these changes already factored into their wheat balance sheets so hopefully we will continue on sideways in the short term.