The US markets chugged along with funds creating the direction of trade with the absence of any other form of news either bullish or bearish. Funds are said to hold a massive short in wheat futures at Chicago, this alone should mean that at some stage prices are likely to rally a little, not sustainably obviously but at least rally while the funds roll or liquidate their short positions over the next few weeks.
Fundamentally the world seems to see wheat supplies slashed in one region only to see another region more than cater for the decrease in the other region. For instance the decrease in French wheat production is countered by an increase in Russian wheat production. The only real standout problem developing in wheat is a quality supply problem. This is likely to drive higher grade wheat spreads as harvest gears up and we get a feel for what our crops are doing.
There is a lot of speculation that the Aussie crop has seen it too soft the whole way and that usually results in lower protein. We are also seeing a bit more leaf disease than usual, less leaf generally means less goodies to fill the grain, so possibly screenings or lower protein.
Russia has just about put their wheat crop in the bin with the latest official figures coming in at 75.4mt @ 97.6% complete, so probably a big 76mt crop. The middle east look likely to enjoy another year of cheap wheat.