Prices 01/12/16

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The Aussie dollar was sharply lower against all the majors bar the Yen in overnight trade. With the US dollar at a 14 year high it might be the only thing that will save grain prices in the short term.
With improving job numbers in the States and a general consensus that the global economic position is improving we may see the predicted US rate rise actually take place this December. Theoretically this would continue to put pressure on the value of the Aussie dollar right about the same time the Australian wheat crop is finished being harvested.

Canola futures at both the ICE and the Paris exchanges broke away from the influence of Chicago soybean futures last night. Combining these moves higher with the weaker Aussie dollar may well see local values improve by as much as $10 / tonne today depening on what the local merchant decides to put in the their pocket. We did see basis improve slightly yesterday as grower selling evaporated, so with increased basis and a rally in overseas markets it may present a window of opportunity for those looking for some early harvest cash flow.
US durum prices crept higher across the durum belt yesterday, Canadian durum didn’t trade with the same enthusiasm as the US market but prices were generally flat. Good quality durum in the US is now pulling around a $30 premium to durum in Saskatchewan.

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