Prices 27/2/17

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Wheat found little love from the fund manager in the US session last night. Chicago and Kansas both closed lower while MGEX struggled but held onto some small gains on the nearby contracts to close the session flat.
Weekly US sales for wheat came in at 451kt, bang in the middle of the range expected by the trade while US corn sales were slightly lower than expected at 743kt. Soybeans managed to close a touch higher after a week of negative closes.
Weather in the US is warmer and wetter in the east and colder in the PNW.

The big news was the Argentine wheat estimate, their farm Ministry lifted 2016-17 production to a massive 18.39mt this is a 7mt year on year increase. If anything the last 2 years has taught us is that if world wheat prices are poor and someone’s currency tanks it, i.e. Russia and Argentina, you can almost put money on increases in grain production in those regions regardless of world prices. If currency is going to give the domestic market another $50 – $100 / tonne it’s not rocket science what they are going to do.
This maybe poor long term planning but often we see producers forced into taking the short term view on grain production. It’s an inherent trait of farming to have to follow the money or go backwards.
Central Saskatchewan durum is lower by a couple of dollars. Spreads to 11% protein lower vitreous are around -C$40.

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