Prices 22/3/17

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There’s three types of market wires in the morning, there’s the factual one, it tells you what happened, no spin, no bias just straight up data. There’s the commentary from the floor, these guys are wired, they are full of caffeine, they know stuff, the media loves them and they have a view, they KNOW what’s going on, these guys are wrong 80% of the time. Then there’s the “wow the markets crashed last night but that just means the funds will be back in buying soon, doesn’t it” type reports, these guys can make Armageddon look good if there’s a buck in it.

It did appear to be all about US weather last night though. The GFS model shows a significant rainfall event pushing through much of the HRW belt over the next 5 days. Oklahoma looks to see the best falls while the major wheat areas in Texas may not get too much at all. Kansas the main HRW state is expected to see good falls to the NW and SE but the greater area of Kansas at this stage is looking to see only light falls.
The heaviest falls are expected to be along the central corn belt states of Iowa & Nebraska and south along the Mississippi to the gulf. With the fund manager back in selling mode, trade and consumer interest went to the sidelines for most of the session. Funds closed the session shorting SRW by another 32,000 contract and reducing their net long in HRW by around 13,000 contracts.

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