The USDA World Ag Supply & Demand report was out last night. The winner was soybeans, corn down nothing and US wheat futures, well they were hammered. With the pace of US exports being abysmal at best this was generally expected but let’s have a quick look at the data anyway.
Let’s look at what the USA are mostly concerned about first, wheat in the their own backyard. Ending stocks increased but not by as much as I thought we could have been. For 2017-18 US projected ending stocks are pegged at 26.92mt, and increase of 790kt month on month. Looking at all the data I’m starting to think tunnel vision may have killed last night’s market but then again we must remember that as much as Chicago touts it is the indicator for world wheat prices it is a US deliverable wheat contract at the end of the day.

Total foreign ending stocks actually fell a little. Major exporter stocks also fell a little, from 23.44mt to 22.81mt. Interestingly there are no adjustments to production anywhere in 2016-17. The big picture also suggest world wheat stocks will fall a little, not much mind you and the depth of the stack is deep, but fall they may, from 268.42mt in Dec to 268.02mt in last night’s guesstimate.
I suppose the real killer in last night’s data is the Russian wheat estimate which went from 83mt to 85mt. The only importer that saw a major jump in production was Pakistan of 800kt which will basically take them out of play.