Prices 22/1/18

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With US weekly corn sales at 1.88mt, more than double the highest trade estimate, it was surprising to see futures only move 1c/bu. Some weather delays in the second crop sowing in Brazil should have also been supportive.
US soybean sales were also better than expected at 1.24mt, double that of last week.
With soybeans now coming off in Brazil we might find the oilseed market hard pressed to rally in the short term. Harvest pace is slow and weather is a little threatening in places but currently the yields are as good or better than expected. A dryer outlook for Argentina was considered more bullish than bearish thus Chicago bean futures closed up 4.25c/bu.
After a couple of up days technical trade and profit taking took the Chicago wheat market lower last night. US weekly export sales were reported at 153kt well below the trade estimate of 200-500kt. This continues to be a big thorn in the side of the US futures market and is preventing any type of recovery at present.

On the 8th of this month ABARES published a report that reduced Aussie wheat production from the 2016-17 season by 5mt. That’s a lot of wheat. Locals were generally sceptical, we simply couldn’t see the mountains of wheat that would have needed to be here to create such a production estimate and the sales pace was hectic. It does raise the point of reporting though. If producers are expected to report production and sales data should not the consumer and trade be made to produce purchases and sales data too.

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