Prices 15/2/18

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Chinese markets will be closed from the 15th to the 21st as they bring in their new year. This may see the sorghum market stagnate a little next week.

In the US futures markets it was more of the same, flat corn, wheat suffering from some technical trade and profit taking and soybeans focusing on the dry weather in Argentina. The weaker USD also played a role in some grains. With March futures contracts approaching expiry there is also some position rolling taking place as volume in the March contract is still relatively high.
The situation in Argentina is extremely variable with some locations predicting record soybean yields while in other locations they have even bailed soybeans for stock feed.

Russian wheat continues to dominate the Middle East market with internal freight subsidies for wheat out of the Volga district playing a key role in the dominance. The freight subsidy is expected to continue as the road and rail network are improved over the next ten years. It appears the only thing that will help global wheat prices improve in the mid to long term, apart from a production failure in one of the major producers or exporters, is indeed the value of the currency of the Black Sea exporters. With a stronger currency may also come the ability to buy better inputs to crop with. Whatever happened to the world running out of grain, remember that yarn 20 years ago.

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