Well, soybeans got crushed in last night’s US futures market, down 41c, that’s about $20 to you and I.
Interesting to note the weakness in soybeans did not roll through the canola or rapeseed markets dollar for dollar and at the close ICE futures still manage a week on week increase of about C$10.90.
The USDA yield estimate for soybeans is what took the axe to futures values. As in the case of corn the increase was higher than the higher expectations. Ending stocks are also higher as the US / China trade spat continues to slow exports.
Corn futures didn’t escape the carnage either. The USDA lifted yield estimates to a record average of 11.19t/ha for corn. They shuffled demand a little to soften the blow but the yield increase being much larger than even the most bullish punter expected took control and the market fell across the board. The corn cash market did not fall as sharply as futures which leads one to think we may see some form of recovery early in the week.
It looks like wheat just got caught up in the selloff in the soybean and corn pits. Reductions were recorded in world carryout and production but probably not as large a reduction as many had hoped for. Global wheat production is now estimated at 729.63mt. Drilling into the numbers we still see production levels in places like Australia pegged at 22mt, which we know is a dream. Just yesterday Riverina came out with their own estimate of just over 20mt, which to many is still too high. The biggest fall was in EU production, back 7.5mt to 137.5mt. Black Sea estimates were higher, Russia +1mt to 68mt and Kazakhstan +500kt to 14.5mt ????