US wheat futures surged higher in overnight trade as rumours that Russia is going to limit annual wheat exports to 30mt circulated. This represents a 5mt reduction on the current 18/19 export projection of 35mt which Russian officials are still suggesting will stay intact.

Russia finds itself in a difficult situation, lower production could in theory put pressure on their domestic supply if exports are too great. Meanwhile their currency is low making domestic values very attractive to the exporters and the producers.

The talk of less Russian wheat on the market also pushed Paris milling wheat futures higher, closing at E212 / tonne an increase of E4.00.
It may take a week or two to see if this market is sustainable and Russian export restrictions are anything other than grain traders talking their book. It is also in Russia’s interest to make wheat prices higher is it not. In the meantime we see US futures rally on the back of the rumour right in the middle of the spring wheat harvest thus presenting marketing opportunities to the farmers of the USA upper Midwest.
Chicago soybeans were a tad weaker while both ICE canola and Paris rapeseed were marginally higher. The Aussie dollar also pushed back above 73c.