Prices 23/10/18

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A quick look at cash prices around the world and we see most wheat values a little weaker overnight. Currency may counter the fall in US dollar values for many exporters, including Australia, but in USD terms prices are generally weaker by a dollar or two.

US wheat futures closed lower on the back of poor weekly export data. Although better than this week this time last year we still see year on year wheat export volume out of the US back 2.61mt from the same time in 2017, 8.21mt vs 10.82mt.
Asian markets continue to be key to the USA. With Australian wheat finding better domestic value in many cases this may continue to help the USA until Western Australia starts to harvest in Nov / Dec.
There are a number of punters who still believe that Russian exports will slow come January / February and US exports will pick up then.

Countering the US is continued dry weather across much of the EU. This is creating less than ideal condition to sow and establish the winter crop across parts of Germany, Poland, Czech and France. As with the USA a few years ago the dry autumn can create some issues but a wet spring will quickly fix most of them, so it’s just speculation until April next year as to whether it’s going to be a concern.

We should see tender results from Syria, Algeria and Jordan this week. Russian wheat is expected to dominate the sales sheets.

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