Prices 11/12/18

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It’s WASDE week, expect nothing overwhelming until this report is out in the open on Wednesday.
A few things are weighing heavy on US futures values. The two main ones are their dealings with China and the second probably more real world issue is their slow pace of exports and export sales.
The USDA predicted the US would export 27.9mt of wheat this marketing year. Currently that volume is at just 11mt, that leaves a target of 700kt / wk to achieve the USDA estimate.
Technically the US wheat futures market is still very over bought, yes it could become even more overbought by the punters if this report has something unexpected in it but most expect to see a reduction in projected US wheat exports. The size of the reduction and the position of the market at present may well be what sparks the correction in March 19 SRW futures at Chicago.

Meanwhile the Russian export pace is probably the envy of the US. Russia loaded 700kt last week, 100kt more than the week prior taking annual exports to about 21mt. The punters expect to see Russia ship between 35mt and 40mt this marketing year.
With crops across much of the Black Sea region looking good heading into the deep winter there are few areas of concern. Ukraine is the best it’s looked in 5 years according to one reports. The 30 day rainfall maps all look good and the forecast going forward is benign.

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