Prices 14/12/18

Category:

US wheat futures continued to forge ahead on the prospect of better export orders in the new year. Are they simply punting, yes indeed it would appear so, this is a futures market after all.
US weekly export sales were good though. At 754kt it’s up there and better than what the USDA say is needed to be done to meet their estimate. With the USDA reducing their projected export total in the last WASDE it did reduce the required weekly target to 680kt, and the annual US wheat sales target to 27.22mt.
Things do appear a little ironic if you are into US soybeans though. The soybean futures market has been crawling around looking for a bush to die under for a while now, a bit like the roos in the paddock next to my house. The Chinese finally offered it a bucket of water in form of orders for 30 cargo’s of US soybeans, that’s about 1.8mt, and what does the market do, well it falls obviously.
The USDA even confirmed sales to China of 1.13mt in last night’s export sales report. It’s a simple buy the rumour / sell the fact trade at Chicago though.
Wheat also found a little support from a further reduction in Argentina’s crop. Frost damage was a little worse than expected pruning a further 300kt of expectations. The Argentine crop is now pegged at 18.6mt, not exactly a small crop.
Ukraine wheat exports have slowed considerably in the last few weeks. The Ukraine annual target is 16mt of wheat exports. This leaves them needing to ship around 210kt per week. In the last week just 42kt was loaded. Will we see higher ending stocks there too ?

TAGS: