Prices 18/12/19

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The Aussie dollar slipped against all the majors bar the pound which is having its own issues at present. With the RBA hinting at another rate cut as early as February 2020 the punters took to the sell side. I found it interesting that the key to the weakness was the central banks assumption that wage growth was too weak to stimulate further growth. It’s not really anything to do with the ability to pay workers more is it, it’s more to do with the spiralling costs of living and what any growth in wages can buy. At present any potential wage growth would go back to paying back debt incurred due to the high cost of living or operating a business.
The pound found pressure from a statement from Boris suggesting a hard exit Brexit is not off the table.

With the US dollar stronger we would usually see pressure on grain futures but with the punters still looking to unwind shorts before the break the reality of global values took a back seat and all grain futures at Chicago found strength enough to close in the black.
The weaker AUD and higher close in US futures may see increased offer values for WA wheat today. The CME Platts Aussie FOB wheat contract (that’s a mouthful) was a little firmer closing the session at US$252.75 for the Jan / Feb slot.

Argentina can’t take a trick, just when they finally get some half decent yields in crops the new government there increases export taxes on wheat, corn and soybeans. Wheat saw the export tax raised from 7% to 12%. Soybeans are expected to be hit with 30% tax.

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