7/1/20

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With net weekly US wheat sales coming in at just 312.9kt the market used the opportunity to sell futures lower and reduce some of the longs prior to this Friday’s USDA report.
There is also a little “risk off ” fuelling this market sell down after last week’s US assassination of Iranian General Suleimani in Iraq. Calls from the Middle East for NATO to remove advisors from Iraq have been ignored. Hezbollah has vowed to remove US troops from the M. East and will commence attacks on US targets within the region………..so business as usual.

This week we have the USDA monthly WASDE report due out Friday their time. On the 15th we have the signing of the partial US – China trade deal……potentially. The market will be focused on squaring up what they need to ahead of Friday’s report. Corn is nearing a neutral position so may begin to flatten out a little depending on outside market influence. This maybe where wheat comes in. Soft red winter wheat futures at Chicago are still a little over bought although the softer finish last night would be helping that.

US and Canadian durum exports finished the year strongly. The increased demand has not rolled across into firmer prices though. Some analyst put this down to the poor volume of domestic liquidity during this time of year. Thus they are also predicting that prices for good durum wheat is likely to firm in Q1 2020. Smaller crops in the Mediterranean should encourage imports there well into 2020.

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