The funds basically open the office door yesterday and said OK, it’s Thursday, let’s take the money and run regardless of the fundamentals. Technically this was foreseeable in wheat futures at Chicago but after the previous day closing higher it wasn’t a given. Wheat, as it had been the most volatile also made in the most vulnerable and we saw all three grades close lower. With the Dow up 905 points one might also argue that those that parked money in wheat during the previous session found greener pastures in the stock market today.

US weekly wheat sales were good, very good. At 1.1mt it beat all the trade estimates prior to the report. With China on the books for 484kt as well one might wonder what kind of drugs the punters were taking to walk away from such bullish fundamental news. Then again don’t let reality and logic stand in the way of technical profit taking.

The International Grains Council put out their monthly stab in the dark last night. Projected wheat production for 2020-21 was increased to 768mt, 5mt over last month’s guestimate. This is also 8mt higher than projected consumption, even after an increase in consumption of 7mt. The end number was a ending stocks level of 283mt, that’s a lot.  With increases in rice, wheat and maize production expected around the world in 2020-21 prices may struggle to improve at a FOB USD level for the major exporters. Weather is generally good in Europe and the US but a little drier than ideal across much of the FSU.