Prices 11/03/17

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The USDA report was generally construed as bearish corn and soybeans and neutral to slightly bearish for wheat. Larger corn and soybean crops in S.America dominated the data and saw increases to world carry over in both products.

For world wheat we see beginning stocks reduced 480kt, smoke and mirrors ladies and gentlemen, production increased 2.83mt, a few adjustments to feed and export use resulting in a final carryover number of 249.94, a rise of 1.3mt over last month. The big movers were a 2mt increase in Aussie production and a 1mt increase in Argentine production. The rest was basically minor changes. Maybe you could say leaving India unchanged at 87mt was a surprise but I think the major changes in India will come with their 2017-18 crop that’s close to being harvested.  A slightly larger than expected draw down on US spring wheat should also be noted.
At the end of the day most of these adjustments in wheat are old news so the pressure in wheat came from the row crops. The only other interesting data was probably for US sorghum production which showed a carryover number of less than 1mt. This may go some way to explaining the strength in export sorghum numbers out of Australia at present.

The weaker close in the Chicago bean market did see a lower close for ICE canola and Paris rapeseed.

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