Lower oil prices appeared to have had a negative impact on US grain futures overnight. Worst hit was Chicago soybean futures which slipped to their lowest level since April. As usual the weaker soybean market rippled across commodities to produce lower closes for both ICE canola futures and Paris rapeseed.
Canadian canola values may see some help longer term from increased exports though. Overnight the AAFC confirmed 2016-17 exports were around 500kt better than expected to date with around 10.5mt of Canadian canola leaving their shores. This, as you would expect, saw a sharp draw down on carryover stocks which are now predicted at only 600kt, this is actually very low and should support prices for canola going forward.
The tighter stocks should see a strengthening of Canadian basis values to the farmer and may well also signal a stronger basis for old crop canola right around the world in the short to midterm. Given the issues in Europe canola maybe the dark horse in 2017.

The IGC reduced world corn stocks by 34mt year on year due to higher industrial demand. In other words China has a pile of rubbish to use and it’ll probably be used to make ethanol. Wheat stocks were lowered 2mt, to 239mt, with China still holding about half.