Prices 26/7/16

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The spring wheat crop tour is under way in North Dakota. As expected eastern ND is looking ok but those on western routes are seeing crops around 12″ to 14″ high with yield estimates around 1.2 to 1.85 t/ha. It should be mentioned that the major spring wheat area in the Dakotas is the NE side of N.Dakota, producing around 60% of the states wheat. Durum on the other hand is generally produced to the NW of N.Dakota, the worst drought affected area at present.
The tour is expected to have a wide variation in quality of wheat crops so it may take more than one day of field checks to access the state effectively. For instance crops around the Red River Valleys appear to be pretty good but west of Devils Lake crops start to become variable and then west of Minot crops become generally poor, that’s a western track of about 250km.

US futures markets were weaker on a better weather map and the expectation of poor weekly export data. China is auctioning off around 5mt of corn this week from state reserves.
The funds are in complete control of this sell off. Crop ratings in the US declined and production estimates around the world continue to slip but yet the funds continue to sell. Keep remembering funds make money from volatility not markets driven by fundamentals.

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