In the US soybeans bounced back after the USDA saw weekly export sales at 1.35mt. This was higher than trade expectations and when combined with further short covering resulted in nearby beans putting on around 8c/bu (AUD$3.80) by the close. The higher bean market and sketchy outlook for Canadian canola saw both Paris and Winnipeg canola futures follow soybeans higher. The move could be enough to see our local values pickup most of yesterday’s losses but we do have the Friday factor to consider today.

US wheat futures appear to be attempting to consolidate around these numbers with the higher grades helping the mid grades and corn helping soft wheat. Although last night did see further downside in both corn and wheat the wheat market is oversold so we may see some technical support creep back into this market next week. Dry weather in the major corn states of Iowa and Illinois may also lead some to assume corn yields may deteriorate a little.

US durum production is pegged at 1.375mt, just 150kt above their record low in 2008. The only thing slowing the price down is the level of ending stocks now versus then, 600kt now vs 200kt then. World ending stocks were also much tighter then and in 2011. Production in N.Africa is higher but production in Italy and Spain is lower. We will really need to wait until post Canadian harvest to price check.