Prices 08/9/17

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US wheat futures were lower apart from spring wheat futures which found support. Soybeans were flat to softer while canola saw significant losses on both the ICE and Paris rapeseed contracts. With Hurricane Irma now expected to be less of a worry for the US cotton belt there were also price adjustments there. The expectation that Malaysian palm oil stocks will increase month of month is weighing over vege oil values as much as the anticipation that Brazil will increase soybean acres for the 2018 crop.

Wheat continues to struggle to retain any rallies at the moment thanks to increasing world ending stocks and production estimates mainly in the FSU. So agencies now see world wheat production around 749mt for 2017-18. With Russia producing a record crop of  80+mt they account for around 9mt of the year on year increase.
As with most years of high production we see ending stocks increase and this year is no exception with wheat stock expected to come in around 262mt, a new record. The increase in ending stocks will continue to stifle any chance of the international market from pushing significantly higher in the short to midterm.
We may be seeing the peak of the estimates though as Australian production looks likely to be nothing but reduced over the next couple of months as drought grips NNSW and SQLD tightly.

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