Prices 13/9/17


It was WASDE night, the USDA released their latest stab at world grain production. US corn and soybean yield estimates were both increased. This was basically the opposite to what most of the punters were expecting to see, with the average trade guess coming in with a reduction of double the amount of the increase for soybeans. Increased soybean imports from China helped counter the US yield increase a little but stocks are still expected to rise.
In the corn pit the punters were also reversing quickly almost taking out the contract low on the rush to the door. Corn yield estimates were increased to 10.66t/ha, the third largest average yield on record. The double whammy for corn came when the USDA also reduced US consumption by 1.3mt. This resulted in a net increased in US corn carryover stocks, the punters were expecting a reduction.
In wheat most numbers were left unchanged apart from the increase in Russian production to 81mt, presently the trade have basically factored in a Russian wheat crop of around 81.5mt so this came as no surprise. Lower production in Australia which was back 1mt to 22.5mt and the EU back 690kt to 148.87mt, helped counter the 3.5mt move higher in Russian production.
The main thing to come out of the USDA report for wheat was the reduction in world ending stocks, back 1.55mt to 263.14mt. Yes that is still about 100mt higher than every producer in the world would like to see it but it is a move in the right direction and a timely move as the northern hemisphere wheat harvest starts to wind up.