In the US technical buying saw corn futures move a little higher and soybean found strength from the meal market and technical buying. Harvest in the US is progressing well enough and the rally in corn is expected to be met with increased farmer selling on Monday. Storms are expected to push across the US Midwest from Saturday through to Wednesday which may slow harvest down a little next week. The hard red winter wheat belt across Texas, north into Nebraska is expected to see some very useful falls.
Global shipping rates continue to rise with the Baltic Dry Index the highest it’s been since March 2014. Some punters are suggesting this is the start of a global turn around in commodity demand. Others are suggesting it is simply a by product of a greatly reduced ship building period over the last couple of year. Either way demand for bulk vessels appears to be increasing. This will make domestic grain more competitive in importing nations like China. If international values increase than the cost of comparable grain from N.China might start to look a little cheaper to those using it in S.China.
If China move to mandate E10 fuel and they require an additional 20mt of grain, say corn, per year to meet that demand that is a lot of pressure on ocean freight.
The stronger AUD will counter any attempt canola can make to move in in conjunction with ICE futures but local basis is firming.