Prices 26/9/17


US corn futures continue to struggle with the arrival of the new crop weighing on prices. Futures at Chicago were flat to firmer overnight. Soybeans slipped a little on the back of harvest pressure.
The punters were expecting an unchanged condition report for beans but the G/E rating has come in at 60%, up 1%, this may pressure soybeans more than the slightly slower than expected harvest pace at present.
The same group of analyst predicted US winter wheat sowing at 25% and the USDA estimate that 24% is sown, this is fine but 4% lower than the 5 year average for this time of year. I think that most Midwest farmers trying to sow would have been happy to take a day or two of due to the rain.
Egypt’s wheat crop is estimated at 8.1mt, about the same as last year, thus imports will come in around the same as last year, around 11.5mt give or take 200kt.
Russia is taking advantage of the poor season in Australia with barley exports surging 60% year on year. In 2017-18 Russia and the EU are the only two major exporters expecting a year on year production increase, Canada, Australia, Argentina  and even Ukraine are looking at reduced production. The fall is leading speculators to suggest 2017-18 ending stocks will be at a 30 year low for feed barley. F1 is currently priced US$4.00 / tonne higher than 11.5% protein wheat out of the Black Sea. That spread is usually -US$15 to F1.