NCDEX chickpea futures now indicate that March is trading at roughly a AUD$7.00 / tonne discount to April. This would indicate that nearby supply is no longer an issue and that it may become a bit of a struggle to move old crop chickpeas to market in India.
It is still a bit of an unknown as to the impact of the tariff on global values. Obviously peas into India will incur the duty and be marked down significantly but what of the other Asian markets. Will the excess simply flood Bangladesh with cheap peas destined for India, probably. I suppose the next question is do the Bangladesh care if values crash or will they too apply an import duty, what of Pakistan.
It is shaping up to be both interesting and possibly a tad depressing as we watch this unfold in January.
Both ICE canola futures and Paris rapeseed futures were sharply lower overnight. The ICE contract was back C$6.20 on the nearby while Paris saw a fall of E3.00 / tonne. The CAD / USD had a fair bit to do with the decline in Canadian values. With an Arctic blast predicted for the weekend the Canadians are not doing much selling and with many ports destined to freeze up they won’t be loading too many boats either so this downside is likely to be localised and limited. The comfortable S&D for palm oil will keep the vege oil market in check in the mid term though.
Cold dry conditions across the Great Plains in the USA continues to be countered by all but perfect conditions across the Black Sea states.