Prices 10/1/18


Technical trade is dominating the USA grain futures markets prior to this Fridays WASDE report. Squaring up in both the corn and wheat pits saw a little upside overnight while soybeans pushed lower. The canola market held on at Winnipeg and Paris with ICE futures flat and Paris up E0.75.
The rate of US weekly wheat export inspections is stopping any significant improvement in futures values. Currently the pace is well off the weekly rate required to achieve the USDA estimate. Wheat isn’t as bad a corn though which is around 26% less than the pace required. The trade is looking to the USDA reports at the end of this week to kick start the market, let’s hope it’s in the upward direction.

Egypt eventually picked up 115kt of Russian wheat overnight. 55kt at US$207.50 CnF and 60kt at US$208.10 CnF. This should see Egypt out of the market for a month or two leading into their harvest in May. This is 12.5% protein milling wheat and at AUD$193 NTP NTL equivalent probably a tender worth missing.

US weather is mostly benign for the next week or so with some light snow expected across parts of the NW HRW belt, this is viewed as beneficial. Generally the southern portion of the US HRW belt remains abnormally dry though.
We see freezing temps across Kazakhstan not quiet pushing far enough west into Russia next week, their mild winter persists.