Not to be out done by the USDA the IGC have got in first with their first 2018-19 world wheat estimate. The numbers look better than expected with a fall in production across some of the major producers. This includes a 10mt decrease in Russian wheat output.
The final number comes in at 741mt resulting in the all important ending stocks number dropping to 253mt, back about 14mt.
World consumption is probably harder to pick than one might imagine. For instance will the fact barley is more expensive than wheat actually result in an increase in wheat consumption into the feed market where it is more readily available.
The other million dollar question is just how much of the 253mt is actually tradeable wheat, how much does someone like China hold. 2018-19 may be shaping up to be more interesting for wheat that many had thought.
Saudi Arabia picked up 1mt of feed barley the other day. Glencore appeared to pick up the lion’s share of the business at values varying from US$238 to about US$254 / tonne. That’s a solid number. Aussie barley is not expected to be used to supply this contract with WA barley still a little expensive.
US futures found little support with the US weather map playing a dominant role in the downturn in wheat futures. I’m not sure what map they are reading though as the one I see actually shows less rain to fall across the HRW belt than initially predicted. The soybeans belt is tipped to get some solid falls though with parts of the Ohio Valley possibly received 3 – 5 inches.