Prices 10/4/18


The US weather map is dictating wheat futures values in the USA. There’s no time to look at world stocks or competing prices from places like Russia, no way, there’s a “drought” in Kansas haven’t you heard. There’s still snow on the ground in the spring wheat states where they are usually planting. It appears the weather in the US is as crazy as their trade negotiations.
I wonder if the HRW “drought” will be like the blizzard that struck during the US crop tour last year. Remember that, snow fell in western Kansas at the end of April last year laying heading crops over. The markets rallied, it was looking good until the crop scouts started to report little to no damage. Maybe this year will be different, maybe the stands are so thin that the prospect of a recovery is impossible.
I guess the crop tour will tell us, in the mean time April is looking more and more volatile.

We have the USDA WASDE report out later this week. That’s expected to shed some light on S.American production prospects more than US estimates. I wonder if we are looking at a “buy the rumour sell the fact” market unfolding at Chicago. It sure is overbought.
The crop progress report was out after the close. The winter wheat crop condition and spring wheat sowing pace will be the key. Winter wheat rating fell again. Good / Excellent slipped 2% to 30%. The amount of the crop in the Very Poor / Poor columns went up 5% to 35%, that’s significant. Kansas has 87% of its crop rates as VP / P / Fair with just 13% rated G/E. Do I buy a call option ??
US spring wheat is at 2% sown Vs the average of 6% and 4% last year, so not a huge reason of concern just yet.