Prices 5/6/18


US grain futures were smashed in overnight trade. Combine this with a much stronger AUD and we should see new crop swap prices for all major grains sharply lower this morning.

The US and China continue to play argee bargee. China’s stance is not exactly helping the Trump administration feel comfortable. In saying this they, the Chinese, are happy to negotiate but they also insist that if the US go ahead and impose tariffs on Chinese imports there will be ramifications and the volume of US goods imported will not increase.

The funds have no interest in sustaining longs in corn, wheat or soybeans after improved weather conditions across the Midwest have the summer crops in good shape. Early yields out of the hard red winter wheat belt are also proving to be a little better than expected. Compounding the negativity was poor weekly export data.
The only thing keeping global wheat prices on edge at present is the poor weather across the Black Sea states and Australia. If either region were to see a significant rain event in the next 30 days international values will continue to weaken.
Some models show patchy falls are possible across the Crimea and NE Ukraine while the Volga Valley is expected to remain mostly dry for the next seven days.