Bargain hunters were considered a major reason why there was a slight “recovery” in US ag futures overnight. A quick look at the charts for the December SRW contract at Chicago shows a weaker open giving way to a better close. The stochastic is oversold and starting a recovery.
The recent reduction in US futures has also resulted in physical prices for wheat on offer out of the states falling. At US$204.75 FOB Gulf for 11% HRW it is not yet competitive with Russian wheat into the Middle East though, which is offered at US$196.25 for a similar grade but it has US wheat very competitive against other exporters into Asia such as Australia or Argentina.
WA wheat is offered into the export market at US$240.75 FOB.
Generally speaking world wheat prices have dropped around US$5 – $6 in the last month or so. Tunisia for instance picked up 125kt of milling wheat at about US$211 C&F, a bit over US$5 less than their wheat purchased in May.
SovEcon are predicting a Russian wheat crop of about 72.5mt but warn this number could slip further if rain is not received in the short term. Spring and summer crops like barley and corn are likely to be more heavily impacted though as winter wheat harvest continues to push north. Rainfall may hold up harvest across Crimea and Ukraine next week but may benefit spring sown crops there.