If you need a lesson on convergence have a look at the nearby contract for ICE canola as it rolls off the board. The nearby number was smashed overnight but the fall doesn’t reflect the general market, or does it, that’s the problem with futures markets the buyers go to the cheapest point of accumulation. That might be an online marketing platform like a futures market, it might be something like the CLEAR grain mechanism. At the end of the day the softest seller sets the market if the bargains are in futures well suddenly paper product is cheapest.
Crop forecast unit MARS has stated that Russian wheat yields should slip on average over last year but in the case of winter wheat still remain above the five year average. Spring wheat yields are likely to slip below the five year average. Overall wheat production will still be at least a little above average for both the winter and spring wheats. So long story short, Russia will still be a very competitive seller into the Middle East and N.African markets in 2018.
Russian milling wheat offers FOB Black Sea were back again yesterday with 12.5% product offered at US$195.75 / tonne.
Durum wheat, is it worth sowing late instead of barley considering that barley has been dry sown on many acres. Price wise Canadian values are back around $25 – $30 on last year, so internationally speaking probably not. Aussie wheat demand remains strong though.