Prices 2/7/18


According to the wires wheat in the US futures market found fundamental strength from weather problems in Australia, Russia, France and the Ukraine. Positioning ahead of the release of the USDA stocks and acreage report was also an active helper of a recovery in wheat futures. As the USDA report hit the market futures prices continued to rally, which baffled many as the USDA acres report was basically bearish wheat as the area was up 4% on last year in the states.

News the French crop is expected to slip 7% (some say 9%) trumped the USDA data and wheat continued to rally. Paris milling wheat climbed five Euros at one stage. Feed wheat values in the Ukraine also slipped as rain continues to fall across some parts of the country and across Romania.  It should be mentioned that of the EU block Romania is expected to see the biggest year on year reduction in wheat production with a crop now pegged 21% lower than last year. Leaving 2018 production at just 7.77mt.

The Volga Valley to the NW of the Black Sea continues to remain exceptionally dry and one must begin to think rain now will be too late for most winter cereals anyway as harvest is active across the south. Yield reports were initially very much better than expected in the south with early crops coming in at over 6t/ha in many instances but as the harvest has moved north yields have fallen off considerably and reports are now coming out of yields closer to 2.5t/ha.