Prices 4/7/18


In the US corn and wheat futures appeared to trade around the fundamentals of other countries like Australia, Russia and Europe which helped Chicago futures stage a slight recovery. Soybean are still focused on the US / China issue and with good weather in the US pushing production estimates higher soybeans continued to struggle.

The US / China issue had more of an impact of Wall St than Chicago last night. In a tit for tat spat the USA restrictions on China Mobile was countered by a ban on US semiconductor manufacturer Micron Technologies from selling chips in China. A surge in oil prices diluted the impact of the tech trade decisions having a bigger impact across the broader market.

In the grain game the lack of any significant move in US crop rating and talk of smaller crops across most of the major exporters continues to put support under any attempted wheat selloff. The IGC numbers for the end of June backed up much of the talk of lower world wheat production in 2018. Global wheat production is estimated at 737mt, back 5mt on the May stab. It will be interesting to see what the USDA come up with on July 12th, next Thursday.
Technically the Chicago Sept wheat contract has been oversold for some time now, being the middle of harvest you almost expect that but at some stage this will change, the question is will next week’s WASDE report be the catalyst.

Locally old crop cash bids were generally unchanged to a fraction lower while new crop bids slipped a little. The weaker dollar helped buffer any significant moves lower.
With a slight recovery in US futures overnight and a slight jump in the AUD, values in Australia are likely to remain unchanged again today.
New crop wheat values didn’t follow US values lower dollar for dollar and are unlikely to follow them higher dollar for dollar today. Offers for APW off the west coast are factoring in a carry still with September offers priced at US$241.75 yesterday. This would roughly equate to AUD$390 – $400 delivered east coast port depending on margin and handling costs.
Wheat from the south of the state or Victoria can be road freighted to Newcastle for about $370 – $380 so currently west coast wheat is only really working into the SEQLD market. It does leave the guys in the New England in a tough spot though.

Further rainfall across WA will help the crop along. Current wheat production estimates over there are around 8mt.

A series of low cells pushing up out of the Southern Ocean and a high cell off the east coast will be the dominant factors in our weather over the next couple of days.
The high cell will create onshore air flow across the SE of QLD and the NE corner of NSW producing a few coastal showers. As the high moves further east airflow over NWNSW is likely to swing towards the N-NW tomorrow resulting in some warm daytime temperatures.
The second of the fronts will push across the Bight tomorrow and across Victoria on Friday. A trough line is expected to develop ahead of this front and showers may pop up along the ranges and New England late Friday before moving north of the border and still along the ranges on Saturday.
A third front is expected to push up and across Victoria early Saturday morning as a high moves into the Bight. The front will push north into NSW this time producing showers across the Riverina and reducing temperatures across NSW. Expect winds to pick up and become gusty late Saturday as conditions deteriorate and temperatures drop considerably. Rain is not expected from this front either.

The ten day is suggesting showers are possible across much of central and southern QLD & NNSW during the second week of July.