Prices 15/8/18

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Overnight Egypt picked up 420kt of Black Sea wheat at an average price of US$248.13 / tonne CFR for the September portion of the order. This equates to roughly US$4.00 less than what they paid back on August 2nd. The main supply comes from Russia through Dubai based Russian grain trading entity GTCS.

The lower cash price for Black Sea wheat did nothing to stop a reversal in US wheat futures values overnight with all three exchanges closing higher. Technically the market was looking oversold after being sold down on the back of last Fridays USDA report. Technical Tuesday lived up to its name with wheat, corn and soybean futures all finding some upside to close in the black.
US soybeans found some support from news that Argentina will not be rolling back their export tax in the short to midterm.
Wheat also found some fundamental support from thoughts that there is plenty of downside potential in last week’s USDA numbers for Russia, the EU and Australia.

There is also some talk that Australian wheat exports will need to be reduced further as the east coast of Australia demands significantly more wheat from the west as the drought continues. A simple S&D model quickly indicates that exports have the potential to fall as low as 14mt in the next twelve months if Australia produces 19mt, most punters are now pegging production lower, some as low as 16mt.

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