Prices 29/8/18


The international markets continue to see mixed signals for wheat values. We have Russian milling wheat values into Egypt continuing to fall away and we have EU yields being cut further.
Egypt picked up Black Sea wheat at an average price of about US$241 per tonne, about US$9.00 less than a tender earlier this month. This is occurring as domestic wheat values in Russia continue to rise while offers out of the Black Sea continue to fall. There are a few things that are not adding up in Russian reports. Another example of this is the feed grain consumption versus the meat and chicken output data. Last year we saw feed grain consumption continue to grow as meat output increased. This year they have managed to continue to increase meat output but have somehow done it while reducing feed grain consumption by a few million tonnes. Well managed efficiencies, I doubt it, incorrect reporting probably. In the meantime if we take the amount of grain required to produce the meat output we all of a sudden start taking millions of tonnes off their wheat balance sheet. The next 6 months could be interesting.

The weaker Black Sea values are rolling through as weaker values at an FOB level right around the world. Soft white wheat offered out of the PNW of America was back US$5.50. Even offers of APW off the west coast of Australia were back up to US$16 per tonne. Old crop wheat is offered there at US$262 with a carry to new crop. Cash bids for wheat at harvest are indicating that prices may still fall further yet though and are probably closer to US$259 FOB Dec / Jan at present.