Global values appear to be flattening out a little as weather is generally benign in the N.Hemisphere leading one to assume that demand will be the key going forward at least until Russia does something to restrict exports, which is looking less and less likely.
Russia although producing a smaller crop than last year’s bin buster hasn’t produced a much smaller than average crop so the reality of things is that Russia is probably unlikely to reduce exports to support domestic supply any time soon.
US futures saw some technical buying as weather delays cause a few issues for corn harvest. Spread trade between wheat and soybean futures also found beans weaker and wheat a tad firmer at Chicago. Wheat was also seeing a little spill over support from the firmer corn futures market.
It’s hard to see wheat prices getting up and running away with the US export pace little more than abysmal at present. The punters were trying to factor in reduced Russian supply during the first quarter of 2019. If we get to February and the Russian’s are still shipping wheat out the door at the current pace US values will probably come under significant pressure.
If the US decide they actually want China as a counter party again and let it back into the gang then things may change for the better in a bit of hurry, for US values at least. It probably won’t have much of a bearing on world wheat values but those holding swaps they may want to keep a close eye on things if that occurs.