Prices 12/12/18

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The WASDE data was considered bearish wheat values. It doesn’t appear to be any worse than the punters had expected but as the US wheat futures market was overbought one could easily see the market getting sold lower for another day or two if need be.
US projected wheat ending stocks were increased due to slower exports, the 680kt reduction in exports was a little on the smaller side of estimates for some but the net results is US stocks ending stocks climbing from 25.84mt to 26.52mt.
From a global perspective the net change to ending stocks is higher, from 266.71mt to 268.1mt.

The USDA reduced Aussie production 500kt, now at 17mt, but also reduced exports to 10.5mt, the net result is 3.35mt ending stocks. This is pretty much on par with what most of the trade think is about the number in Australia at present. 3.35mt does represent a year on year decrease of 2.35mt to ending stocks, not a huge concern from a global perspective but not an ideal number for Aussie consumer to have hanging over them. The USDA peg total Australian domestic consumption at 9mt, this is higher than some punters predict. This number may fall somewhat given a decent wide spread fall of rain.

Russian exports were increased from 35mt to 36.5mt, interesting to note a carryover stocks balance of just 5.37mt, less than half last year’s carry out. EU exports were also dropped 1mt, now estimated at 22mt.

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