Prices 17/1/19

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The punters continue to suggest Russian wheat export restrictions are immanent while the Russians continue to announce everything is OK and there will be no restrictions. I guess it depends on your book than doesn’t it, long you take the punters side, short you take the Russian side of the argument.
US grain futures were flat to firmer overnight, generally firmer but only by a couple of cents a bushel across most grains bar poor old HRW futures. Those guys must feel they are getting the raw end of the deal at present.

It’s like watching an episode of “Deal or No Deal”, the whole Brexit drama took what some might say was a very expected twist with the exit proposal being overwhelmingly rejected. It is now appearing more likely that the WTO exit procedure will be followed come March 29th. This could result on a tax or tariff being applied to UK goods selling into the EU.
The vote of no confidence is the next thing, is this just a deflection or delay strategy or is it a true challenge. Well at least we know what the majority of the house doesn’t want, now they just need to determine a path forward. So basically that hasn’t been achievable in 2 years so the odds of doing it in 2 months is probably minimal too.
I guess the British now need to read the fine print from the WTO and work out what gets taxed and what doesn’t and how to counter the export tariffs with their own counter measured. Could this actually help UK Ag by inflating domestic grain values ?

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