Prices 10/4/19


Did someone say there was a WASDE out from the USDA last night……. yawn. As much as the USDA report is “renowned” for shaking up the market it didn’t exactly stir the punters from their slumber this time around. The trade had expected to see higher US ending stocks for just about everything and the report didn’t disappoint.
The USDA increased corn stocks by 5mt, a little more than the average trade guess but not enough to create any form of panic. With wet, coldĀ  weather predicted for the US and corn planting at just 2% the average punter appears pretty happy with their position in the yellow grain at present.
US soybean stocks were actually reduced a smidge (127kt), most punters had expected to see a slight increase but a change of this magnitude was never going to have much of an impact. A slight rise in global supplies kept things in check.
From a canola perspective there was a little good news last night when the French confirmed that just 1.32mha has been sown, almost a 20% decline from last year. If we see a similar reduction in Canadian acres canola may sustain a decent spread to beans leading into the second half of the year but spreads don’t pay the bills, net prices are still lower than we’d like to see.
And for wheat, the bad news never stops, the USDA increased domestic stocks by about 900kt, lower US exports, lowered US usage but somehow the USDA managed to raise their expectation of the average cash price…….smoke and mirrors. Increased winter wheat crop condition ratings in the USA also hurt wheat. Now rated at 60% G/E it’s looking likely the US will have a few tonnes even if acres are lower.