Without any fundamental support wheat once again assumed the path of least resistance and US futures fell away. Minneapolis still appears to be the contract with the most to lose. HRW and SRW contracts are already close to historically low values if you take the CPI into account. If Canada walk away from canola and peas like many think they will and decide against durum due to low prices than wheat acres look almost certain to grow. A larger Canadian crop can only put more downward pressure on US spring wheat values in the short to mid term.

On the 10th the USDA will have a stab at world numbers for 2019-20. This report will include an aggregate value for “World Less China”. This should start to show just how tight some commodities really are considering Chinese stocks, besides possibly being somewhat synthetic, are never going to hit the international market and are heavily influencing current world stocks to use ratio’s for grains such as wheat. At the end of the day the market is the market though, so don’t expect it to have a huge influence on prices immediately, unless China decide to start buying all of a sudden.

Dry parts of France, Germany and Poland are all expected to see 25mm – 50mm of rain over the next 7 days. This should go a long way to slowing the decline in crop conditions there. Paris rapeseed values slipped €1.25 / tonne in overnight trade.