Prices 29/5/19


USDA crop progress report pegs corn sowing in the states at 58%, an increase of just 9% week on week. The 5 year average is about 90%. Illinois and Indiana still have a few hurdles with just 35% and 22% sown respectively.  Ohio and S.Dakota are also in a bit of trouble. The rally in corn futures may see producers persist with corn through the prevent plant date.
So far in May corn futures at Chicago have rallied 60c/bu (AUD$34.50/t). The thought of sowing soybeans and not being able to sell them is weighing on some minds even with the promise of a US$2.00 / bushel subsidy. The maths point to corn still being a better gross margin than beans for many.
The next couple of snippets of data out of the crop progress report that is interesting is the percentage of the winter wheat in head and the crop condition rating. Week on week the volume of the crop rated good to excellent slipped 5%, that’s significant. The soft wheat states across the eastern corn belt appear to be doing it tough but we also see Kansas, the major HRW state below the average G/E rating for both Oklahoma and Texas.
Spring wheat sowing has progressed and is now just 7% under the 5 year average and pegged at 84% sown, 47% emerged. N.Dakota, the major spring wheat producer saw good progress over the last week.
Wheat, although fundamentally the outlook for higher prices has improved in the US, will need all the help it can get from corn to sustain these levels or improve unless we see some serious disease issues arise.