US soybeans registered a pulse last night while wheat and corn futures were basically put on life support leading into tonight WASDE report. The punters have laid their bets and they look a little like US wheat production up, US corn down, US soybeans down sharply. The punters are seeing world carry over for corn increasing a little, soybeans decreasing by 3mt and wheat ending stocks coming back a couple of million tonnes to about 292.4mt. We’ll see who wins tomorrow morning.
Wheat harvest in Kansas is progressing well behind the average pace with another round of storms slowing the process. Protein levels continue to be lower than average while yields are very good. Test weights have also been good with 60lb wheat common, that’s about 75kg/hL to you and me.
The condition of the US durum crop also improved week on week as much needed rain fell across parts of the US and Canadian spring wheat belt. The N.Dakota durum crop is rated at 74% good to excellent, that’s up from 65% last week. Montana also saw a sharp improvement in condition while Minnesota and S.Dakota were relatively unchanged. In N.Dakota the progress is about normal with around 50% of the crop now in head.
China hasn’t confirmed it yet but the word is corn production could slip back to below 230mt this year after a dry June. 6 year low. Demand is also expected to decline as ASF has the potential to halve the Chinese swine herd. Net result, probably neutral price.