Prices 17/7/19


The prospect of good follow up rainfall across N.Dakota and Minnesota and across the top of the central corn belt was viewed as beneficial to spring wheat and soybeans. Wheat futures generally managed to avoid the technical selling this triggered in corn and soybean futures at Chicago. Corn values in particular were reluctant to slip too far as the forecast of temperatures into the high 30’s and low 40’s C for the HRW belt and up into Nebraska on Friday kept the downside in check.

Wheat harvest pace is picking up across the Black Sea states. Russia is seeing good protein across the southern wheat belt but test weight has been lower than expected resulting in yields being less than predicted. The hot dry harvest conditions have been ideal for getting the wheat in the bin with around 29mt off already. Yields are averaging about 5% less than last year at 3.76t/ha but are expected to decline further as the harvest moves north.
To the east Ukraine has about 12mt in the silo, yields are averaging a little less than Russia but in Ukraine the higher yielding wheat is in the north so there is a good chance this average will improve over the next few weeks. Protein is generally better than average but is expected to be variable with poorer quality later harvest crops in the west bringing the average back a little.
Romania has seen too much rain this year and is expected to harvest a large percentage of feed wheat, some analyst expect to see as much as 55% of the Romanian wheat crop down graded. Production is fairly high though with estimates for Romania around 8.3mt.