The USDA November World Ag Supply & Demand report was out overnight. Let’s have a skim over the data and see what’s new. By the way the market has responded I’d say not much at a glance.
USA wheat production is back 1.13mt to 52.26mt, resulting in a 810kt reduction in ending stocks to 27.59mt. Argentina is back 500kt but still pegged at 20mt, exports were reduced 500kt and beginning stocks were moved higher leaving ending stocks 100kt higher….smoke and mirrors, watch closely. Australian wheat production was reduced by 800kt to 17.2mt, ending stocks were back to 4.81mt (dreamin), exports were reduced 500kt to 9.00mt (dreamin again). Canadian wheat was left unchanged at 33mt. EU wheat was increased 1mt to 153mt, exports were increased by 1mt to 29mt to leave ending stocks unchanged, sounds a bit lazy doesn’t it. Russian production was increased from 72.5mt to 74mt, beginning stocks were reduced a little but the net result was still a 570kt increase in ending stocks.
So the big picture for wheat is still a little ugly with ending stocks increasing from 287.8mt to 288.28mt after world production was increased fractionally to 765.55mt.
Looking towards the northern hemisphere new crop wheat sowings we see the US continues to stumble through an early winter which is hampering the harvest of summer crops and the sowing of the last of the winter wheat. In Europe the last 14 days has seen parts of France receive up to 400% of normal rainfall thus winter crop sowing is also being delayed there. Meanwhile dry weather hinders Russian sowing.