Traders in the USA are probably sitting back wiping the last of the turkey and apple pie from their weary chins as I write. Thanksgiving holiday saw the US futures markets closed for the day. Generally the Friday following is also very quiet in the states as the punters make a long weekend of it.
Across the Atlantic milling wheat futures at Paris gained E1.25 in the December contract to close at E183.25 per tonne (AUD$298). There’s not a lot of variation in futures values throughout 2020. The May 2020 contract is paying E185.00 with the September slot is back to E180.25. Without some kind of supply issues between March > May, the 2020 marketing year is shaping up to be less than memorable.
Interesting to note the official 2019 Russian wheat estimate was reduced from 78mt to 75mt.
Rainfall across much of Brazil and Argentina will help the summer crop program immensely. The punters are already suggesting that S.America will see record demand from China thanks to the USA tariffs. One report shows Brazilian corn exports could climb as high as 41mt in 2020, over 10mt higher than their previous record of 30.7mt set back in 2015. Brazil sow two corn crops which are split by production at 40% sown in September for a March harvest and about 60% of the production coming from the second crop sown in January / February. The first crop favours the eastern districts and the second the western districts with Mato Grosso making up around 40% of the second, or locally called, Safrinha crop. Talk of increasing export taxes in Argentina may also see a rapid sales program in Dec / Jan.