Prices 5/12/19


Thailand picked up 60kt of feed wheat overnight at US$236.50 CFR. The punters are tipping the loading to be from Romania or Argentina, there’s nothing of that grade coming out of Western Australia at present. To put it into perspective we would see around US$20 to move product from WA to Thailand. So this number would equate to about $408 landed Liverpool Plains from the west coast.
The feed wheat market may start to struggle for the first time in a few years with Australian and Argentine wheat both higher grades than average. This might be just what the HRW market in the US needs at present.

In the US soft, hard and spring wheat futures all closed slightly higher. The Midwest has seen some heavy rain over the last couple of weeks while the north is looking at snowfall of up to 2′ in places. With many of the northern states in the USA still having significant amounts of corn still to come off we should start to see global feed value spreads narrow over the coming months.
Technically corn futures at Chicago may need to see a little more selling prior to the USDA report out next week but longer term the above dynamics may see the punters go long for their winter months.

What would really fire this feed market up would be a vaccine for ASF. There’s been confirmation that 18 hogs have died of ASF in western Poland taking the total to 20. The first case that tested positive was a wild boar killed in road traffic, 300km east of the latest cases.