US wheat futures were generally lower as the USDA left world wheat carryout for 2019-20 basically unchanged. The trade were expecting a slight reduction but the fall from 288.08 to 288.03mt this month was not the fall needed.
The USA saw a fall of 680kt in projected ending stocks, down to 25.58mt. Total non US stocks actually climbed 630kt. Increases of interest were in Canada, 5.64 Vs 5.37, China 148.26 Vs 147.46mt, and a number of smaller increases in some Asian importers. Russian and Ukraine data was left unchanged. Kazakhstan saw increased exports, from 5.2mt to 6mt, this reduced ending stocks there almost 500kt. Also interesting to see an increase in expected Chinese imports of wheat from 3.2mt to 4mt.
Australian data was left unchanged, they still think we are going to export 8.2mt of wheat and have 4.2mt of carry over, dreaming. Although recent rainfall will see a decline in feed demand it’s still a big call.
A recent increase in Australian sales to Asia will be something to watch. If sales continue to be strong into Asia there is a very real chance Australia could “run out” of wheat prior to harvest. The sudden interest comes from both the weaker AUD and the recent ratification of the  Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA-CEPA). This agreement should open up the Indonesian market and the Australian market to both sides if and when tariffs are removed.
The Australian industries most likely to suffer due to the agreement appear to be garments, footwear, electrical appliances and electronics and commodities such as rubber, wood, pulp and paper.