There is a USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate report due out on the 10th, so much of the trade in the US futures markets at present is focused around predictions for the data being presented on Friday night our time. There is also a little shuffling as July futures roll off the board but most of the speculation is around the USDA data and how it will relate to last week’s quarterly stocks report.
Around 17% of the N.Dakota durum crop is now in head and rated at 48% G/E, back 3% on last week, compared to spring wheat at 59% G/E you can see durum didn’t handle the extended dry spell that well.
Flooding in Canada is mostly NW of the main cropping locations. The Saskatchewan durum crop is rated at 74% G/E, 22% Fair and 4% Poor. To the west in Alberta durum conditions were much better with the crop rated at 84% G/E. With Stats Canada increasing durum acres from 5.2m to 5.7m in their last report we may have expected a little weakness in durum markets but poor weather in Canada and N.Africa has seen support at current values and should see this support carry through unless conditions in Canada change dramatically.
Egypt booked 230kt of Russian wheat at US$218.80 CFR overnight. Offers out of Russia were said to be as low as US $205 FOB, which would make freight somewhere around US$13.80. The tonnage was booked for an August slot. US wheat is getting very close to being able to compete in the N.African markets with HRW offered out of Gulf around US$194, add freight at US$26 to this and you come up with $220 Egypt. A lone vessel of French wheat was offered to Egypt at US$218.86 FOB but failed to come close to Black Sea origins in value.