23/7/20 Prices


US grain futures were higher in overnight trade on speculation that weekly export sales numbers may come in towards the top end of expectations. Corn found buying interest from the ethanol industry pushing local basis bids higher by as much as 6c/bu in some locations. Wheat was basically dragged along for the ride.
Cash bids across SW Saskatchewan were a little firmer for spring wheat after some downside earlier in the week. Durum prices for nearby delivery were lower while the December slot was also a little softer shedding C$1.56 to be bid on average around C$261.65 according to PDQ. Rolling this out to an equivalent Aussie port bid gives us a number around AUD$385 port equivalent. Although back about $10 week on week the 1CWAD13 spread over 1CWRS 13.5 spring wheat remains high at C$37.28 per tonne.
FOB sorghum Texas is a little higher at US$215 offer. This tends to indicate Aussie port values are a little low at present.

The Russian wheat harvest has yielded around 29.3mt thus far. Heavy rain around northern Ukraine and south central Russia has resulted in some delays which in turn has seen grower selling diminish putting upward pressure on local and export offers out of the Black Sea. With about 30mt off from an expected 75mt it leaves about 45mt remaining, 20mt is spring wheat, so it leaves around 25mt of winter wheat to come off over the next few weeks. The harvest pace will need to pickup to achieve this and get the wheat in without any down grading. The 7 days forecast is looking good for an increase in harvest pace with mainly dry weather predicted across the winter wheat regions.