It was a mixed night on US futures markets. Soybeans were sharply higher, once again on long term weather forecasts tipping dryer than average conditions in the midterm. Weekly USDA soybean ratings were also back 1% in the G/E field last night so that will help fuel the rally when it opens this evening. You would think they’d wise up after the last 3 weeks but nope, they are at it again.

The weather forecast also helped corn futures higher but wheat had no part of it and continued to slip lower.
Wheat yields in Kansas are good, in fact very good. They are about 60% through the crop in Kansas. There’s plenty of reports of crops yielding 50-60bu/ac, that’s 5t/ha to you and me. There are also quite a few reports of 60-90bu/ac crops, 5.45t/ha to 8.17t/ha. To make matters worse last night’s USDA crop condition report pegged the G/E rating 1% higher at 62%. Luckily for us a sharp decline in the AUD against the USD should counter much of the potential move lower. It will also boost the potential upside for canola.

The only bright light for wheat at the moment is durum. We should know how badly affected the EU crop is in the next week or two as harvest picks up. Canadian trader G3 (The old CWB) actually increased its pool estimate for new crop durum on the back of the expected weather damage in France. Hopefully this will counter the expected increase in Canadian production this year.